Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would ...
This book will inspire you to: Understand the three categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Gain experience through small strategic bets before launching larger initiatives Embrace uncertainty as a key ...
This book addresses an aspect of the theory and practice of foreign policy that has assumed increasing emphasis in the study of international relations.
Superprognoze oferă prima modalitate demonstrabil eficientă de îmbunătăţire a abilităţii noastre de prezicere a viitorului – fie că e vorba de afaceri, finanţe, politică sau de preocupări cotidiene –, devenind, prin aceasta, ...
Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.
Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña Superpronosticadores, tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en ...
Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.