Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would ...

A major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary people decide what to favour and what to oppose politically.

This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough ...

This book addresses an aspect of the theory and practice of foreign policy that has assumed increasing emphasis in the study of international relations.

Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.

Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña Superpronosticadores, tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en ...